Cartago, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

741
FXUS65 KVEF 110859
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
159 AM PDT Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...An upper level low bring rain at times to the
southern Mojave Desert and parts of Mohave County today through
the first half of tonight, however any impacts are expected to be
minor today. The next,stronger and colder storm will impact the
region midweek, bringing widespread rainfall and mountain snows
to the region along with gusty winds. Improving conditions are
expected Friday and Saturday but gusty winds and shower chances
will return by Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Tonight.

Satellite imagery early this morning showed an upper level low
spinning off the southern California coast, as evident by the nice
cyclonic rotation of clouds noted on upper level water vapor. Bands of
cloud cover were being pushed out ahead of the low in response to
increasing moisture and strong upper level diffluence. Radar
imagery showed precipitation blossoming along the California
coastline closest to the low itself. Mesoanalysis showed this is
where the highest PWATs over 0.50 inches were located and overlapped
strong forcing from vorticity advection. Further north and east, all
the moisture was mid to upper levels, thus no rain fell from the
clouds. Overall, its been a quiet night in our neck of the woods as
winds remained light out of the south to southwest and temperatures
were 5 to 7 degrees warmer than at this time last night.

The upper level low will move inland through southern California
into Arizona today. Moisture will increase due to moist southerly
flow, with PWATs south of the I-15 climbing to 100% of normal and to
150% of normal south of the I-40 in California and Arizona. The low
itself will being to fall part though and become disorganized as it
moves through the region, transitioning from the nice closed low
with organized forcing to an open wave that will be losing its punch
by the time it gets into Arizona. At first, strong upper level
diffluence and a piece of prefrontal forcing will shift through San
Bernardino County into southern Nevada. Some hi-res models really
want to develop an area of scattered showers with this feature that
would push into Clark County after 4 PM PT. This is possible given
the upper level dynamics, and made to to include a low chance for
precipitation this afternoon, however the low levels will struggle
to saturate as the better moisture lags behind this feature and in
general sets up further south. Not expecting rain or snow impacts
with any showers that make it north of about the Baker, CA to
Laughlin, NV area. Probabilities for over 0.l0 inch of total
precipitation through this evening support this as they are 20% or
less.

Further south, better development is expected as moisture and
forcing combine. Of note, the 06Z HRRR shows multiple rounds of
precipitation south of Barstow, CA through Yucca Valley this
afternoon, then more robust precipitation this evening in southern
Mohave County. NBM probabilities show a 50% chance for precipitation
amounts over 0.10 inches through early tonight in these areas, and
a 30% chance for precipitation amounts over 0.25 inches, so isolated
minor rain impacts are possible if someone is driving and encounters
wet roadways. Overall though, rain impacts will be low. Snow levels
will remain around 6500-7000ft as this will be a warmer system, so
snow impacts will also be limited with warm temperatures and light
precipitation keeping accumulations limited.

The low quickly exits to the east after midnight, taking
precipitation chances with it. Dry weather is expected the second
half of the night.Temperatures will be cooler today compared to
yesterday with the system bringing height falls as well as abundant
cloud cover. South to southwest winds could gust 15-25 MPH at times
this afternoon as the system shifts through the region, with gusts
up to 30 MPH possible in southern Mohave County which will see the
best punch of forcing and pressure gradient to help increase winds.

.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Tuesday.

As Tuesday`s system translates eastward as a dampening open wave
early Wednesday morning, a brief period of low-amplitude ridging
will result in a relative lull between systems for portions of the
area. Deterministic guidance, ensembles, and cluster analyses remain
in very good agreement regarding this system and its evolution, with
its effects expected to first be felt across the eastern Sierra
prior to daybreak Wednesday morning, as heavy snow begins to
overspread the higher terrain. Moisture will spill over the
mountains, first across the Southern Great Basin where rain across
lower elevations and a rain/snow mix across higher elevations is
expected to begin Wednesday morning. Further south, mainly dry
conditions are expected until Wednesday evening and overnight due to
the aforementioned low amplitude ridging, though despite the ridge,
moisture will continue increasing across the region, with an uptick
in gusty southerly winds region-wide Wednesday afternoon onward.
While the greatest probability for gusts in excess of 40 mph exists
across the western Mojave Desert, Inyo County, and the Southern
Great Basin on Wednesday, the higher-end probabilities (60-90%)
through Wednesday evening aren`t as widespread as prior guidance has
suggested. Regardless, these windy conditions will be slow to
diminish, with the wind direction progged to shift to the northwest
with the stronger winds trending southward late Wednesday night into
Thursday as the trough begins pushing through the region. By late
morning Thursday, the strongest winds will be focused along and
south of I-15, with potential for windy conditions to persist across
Mojave Desert zones into Friday.

Widespread precipitation remains the primary focus with this midweek
system, which will maintain as an open wave with an accompanying IVT
plume that will facilitate anomalously high precipitable water
values and the best chance for widespread accumulating precipitation
in some time. The greatest QPF exists across the higher terrain,
especially across the Eastern Sierra where upwards of 1 to 2 feet of
snow are expected, and across the Spring Mountains where 12 to 18
inches of snow are expected. Across lower elevations, guidance
remains consistent in 0.10" to 0.30" of storm total rainfall, and
currently, the most favorable window for substantial precipitation
areawide is from late Wednesday night through Thursday morning, with
precipitation largely exiting to the east by Thursday evening. As
the event ramps up early Wednesday, snow levels begin at roughly
6500-7000 feet, though as colder air filters into the region, snow
levels lower to around 4500-5000 feet coincident with the timing of
the highest PoPs. Thus, greatest snow accumulations in area
mountains are expected above 8000 feet, and Winter Storm Watches
remain in effect for the Eastern Sierra, White Mountains, Spring
Mountains, and Sheep Range. An additional Winter Storm Watch is in
effect for the mountains in the Southern Great Basin above 5500 feet
where confidence is increasing in impactful accumulating snow of 8
to 12 inches. Focus will remain on additional higher terrain across
Mohave County where the Hualapai Mountains could see a brief window
on Thursday for potential substantial snowfall across the highest
elevations as the system exits the region.

Temperatures with this system will be noticeably colder, with highs
10-15 degrees below normal Thursday and Friday. Heading into the
weekend, flow aloft remains weak northwesterly to quasi-zonal,
allowing temperatures to rebound back toward normal, ahead of the
next system early next week. Ensembles  The pattern looks to remain
fairly progressive, with a return to a period of weak ridging for
the upcoming weekend, allowing temperatures to rebound closer to
normal for mid March. Ensembles and cluster analyses are indicating
the next in the series of troughs to take aim on the region early
next week, with potential for another round of precipitation Sunday
night, becoming more widespread through Monday night. However, given
the system early next week is 6 to 7 days out, there remains
substantial uncertainty in the details, thus have maintained the
blended NBM solution for now. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Southwest winds continue overnight, with speeds remaining under 10
knots. By late morning tomorrow, winds will turn southeast and
increase to around 10 knots before turning to the south by mid-
afternoon.  Gusts will also increase to near 20 knots as the winds
turn southerly after 20Z.  While the majority of moisture associated
with a low passing across northern Mexico should stay south of the
valley, an isolated light shower cannot be ruled out between 22Z and
04Z.  The probability of this occurring is only around 20 percent,
so VCSH was not included in the TAF at this time.  Winds should fall
to less than 10 knots out of the southwest after sunset and remain
from that direction overnight.  SCT to BKN clouds with bases AOA
15kft AGL will continue to move across the area through late
morning.  SCT Bases will fall to around 6kft AGL by late afternoon
as the deeper moisture moves into the area.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Conditions at the Las
Vegas area TAF sites will be similar to what is described above for
Harry Reid, with the exception of a slightly better chance of a
shower in the late afternoon or evening at KHND. Winds at KBIH will
generally be out of the south through tomorrow with a few gusts
approaching 30 knots during the afternoon. Across the western Mojave
Desert, westerly winds will prevail with speeds generally remaining
less than 15 knots.  In the Colorado River valley, winds will remain
southerly, with a few gusts to 25 knots expected during the
afternoon.  Scattered showers are expected across the southern
Mojave Desert and lower Colorado River Valley during the afternoon
and evening, and VCSH has been introduced in the TAFs for KDAG and
KEED with this package. Prevailing skies will mainly be SCT to BKN
with bases AOA 12kft AGL, although CIGs of 5kft to 8kft AGL are
possible with shower activity across southern areas in the late
afternoon and evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Nickerson
LONG TERM...Phillipson
AVIATION...Planz

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