Cartago, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

316
FXUS65 KVEF 130234
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
734 PM PDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Our next system is making its presence known with
gusty winds kicking up across our western zones this afternoon.
Widespread precipitation moves in tonight and tomorrow along with
gusty conditions. Main concern continues to be winter impacts
above 5000 feet, with Winter Storm Warnings and advisories for
most of these locations. Light precipitation chances linger on
Friday before dry weather takes hold this weekend. The pattern
remains active with another system set to move in early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...

This evening, a few weak echoes have popped up on radar, mainly
over  portions of Clark and Mohave counties. These showers are
expected to largely remain elevated, with a fairly substantial dry
sub-cloud layer characterized by 15-20deg dewpoint depressions.
These showers have materialized in a warm advection regime, aided
by increasing ascent ahead of the approaching trough. Only a
sprinkle or two at best are expected from these showers, with the
primary focus being the incoming winter storm and widespread
precipitation event this evening through tomorrow. The system has
continued to trend slower, a trend that began yesterday, with most
of the moisture remaining confined to the western slopes of the
Sierra in a favored upslope flow regime. SNOTEL observations
indicate snow has yet to begin in the Eastern Sierra, but given
radar and satellite trends and supplemental high resolution
guidance, snow is expected to begin in the mountains within the
next hour or two this evening. Additional development of
precipitation is expected east across the Southern Great Basin and
southern Nevada tonight as the IVT plume associated with the
incoming system impinges on the area from the southwest,
moistening the column under increasing ascent. Initially most high
elevations will see a rain/snow mix with snow levels remaining
around 7000ft and higher, though snow levels are still progged to
fall fairly rapidly through daybreak as the trough draws closer.
Lower elevations will see rain, with the best chance for
widespread precipitation (probabilities ranging from around 60-90%
for most locations) will hold off until late tonight/early
Thursday morning through early Thursday afternoon.

Aside from precipitation potential, windy conditions have been
fairly persistent over portions of Inyo, Esmeralda, and Nye
counties, where Wind Advisories remain in effect this evening.
Wind gusts of 35-45mph have been common, with a few errant gusts
over 50 mph reported at Goldfield Summit (51 mph) and just south
of Big Pine (51 mph). Thus, with Wind Advisories, Winter Storm
Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories in effect, currently, the
forecast remains on track this evening with no substantial updates
warranted. For now, we`re in "the calm before the storm" with
increasing winds and precipitation potential through Thursday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...300 PM PDT Wed Mar 12 2025...

.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

The effects of our next system begin to be felt today as south-
southwest winds increase and isolated precipitation chances crop
up. On the wind front, the impactful gusts today are likely to
be confined to our western locations. Opted to issue a short-fused
Wind Advisory for Esmeralda and central Nye counties until 11PM
due to the high (80%) probability of 40+ mph gusts. Strong winds
in this area will continue past 11PM, but will be covered by the
Winter Weather Advisory that goes into effect at that time. The
Wind Advisories for Inyo County has gone into effect and the
advisory for western San Bernardino County is still set to go into
effect at 5PM this afternoon. The corridor of strongest winds
will translate eastward tonight and tomorrow as the trough itself
pushes through. Wind Advisories go into effect across the rest of
the Mojave Desert and NW Arizona at 7AM MST / 8AM PDT. Winds begin
to come down Thursday night, but gusty conditions linger across
the western deserts into Friday. The Wind Advisory for the Barstow
zone may need to be extended through Friday afternoon.

On the precipitation side, parts of the area could see isolated
showers this afternoon/evening, but the main event continues to be
on track for tonight and tomorrow. CAMs show isolated shower
activity today, mainly across the eastern half of the CWA. These
seem to be driven by isentropic ascent/warm air advection.
However, a subsidence inversion above 700mb should keep things
pretty shallow or prevent development all together. As the trough
gets closer tonight, this inversion is forecast to weaken, which
should be more favorable for shower activity across NE portions of
the area. At the same time, the main moisture plume and
precipitation will be advancing into our western zones. Pushed
back the start time of the Winter Storm Warnings in the Sierra and
White Mountains until 5PM based on hi-res guidances. Spillover
into the valleys of our western zones should begin after midnight
and move eastward through the morning hours. Rain chances in Las
Vegas begin to notably increase after sunrise, with the highest
probabilities (75%+) between 7AM and 10AM. The initial band clears
Mohave County by late afternoon, though more scattered activity
will linger across the area through the evening hours.

The bulk of precipitation and impacts should occur with the initial
band. Areas of most concern for winter impacts are the Sierra,
Spring Mountains, and elevations above 5000 feet in the our
southern Great Basin zones. Farther south and east, uncertainty
is higher regarding the potential for winter impacts in places
like I-15 at Mountain Pass, I-40 east of Kingman, and the Hualapai
Mountains. Hi-res guidance is keen on a change over to snow on
the back side of the initial wave of precipitation, but even if it
does, how much will stick given the preceding rain and above-
freezing temps? A difference of a few degrees will have a large
impact on snow totals and winter impacts in these locations. Based
on current guidance, going to pull the trigger on a Winter
Weather Advisory for central Mohave County above 5000 feet from
noon Thursday to 2AM Friday. The combination of snowfall totals
and potential snowfall rates seem to justify its issuance. Just
don`t have the forecast confidence to issue anything for Mountain
Pass with NBM probs for 1"+ around 50%.

Similar to last week`s system, the trailing cold front will be a
secondary focus for precipitation Thursday afternoon for areas
north of Las Vegas. With plenty of cold air aloft, precipitation
along the front could contain some convective elements. The main
concern with this activity will be shorter-lived but locally heavy
snowfall rates in places like Goldfield and Pioche. As the sun
sets and the cold front pushes east, precipitation chances come to
an end across the area Thursday night. A weaker, trailing system
sliding through on Friday will bring light precipitation chances
to mainly the higher terrain, but the limited moisture and
precipitation amounts should preclude any impacts.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

Dry, northwesterly flow brings precipitation chances to an end
Saturday as ridging builds in from the west. This ridge keeps us
dry over the weekend and brings temperatures close to seasonal
values. Breezy conditions persist, but chances for impactful winds
remain below 40%.

Yet again, ensemble guidance suggests that the pattern will remain
active as another trough approaches Monday and Tuesday. At the
moment, moisture appears to be more limited with this system.
Latest NBM PoPs paint areas north of I-15 and northern Mohave
County with 25-60% chances, while the remaining locations are
mostly 25% or less. The most widespread impacts will likely come
in the form of wind. EPS mean wind gusts are already in the 30-40
mph range across much of the area. NBM probabilities for 40+ mph
gusts on Monday and Tuesday range from 50-90% over most of the CWA
as well. As we remain 5-6 days out, the details with this system
are sure to change, but confidence is high in increased winds and
precipitation chances early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Gusty
southerly winds are expected to last through the night. Clouds
with bases between 5000 and 6000 feet should decrease in coverage
overnight. Tomorrow morning, lower clouds and rain showers enter
the Las Vegas area with cloud bases lowering to around 3000 feet.
Temporary changes in wind direction are possible near the showers.
The most likely timeframe for showers to reach the terminal is
between 15 and 18Z. Winds begin to shift with the southwest in the
afternoon and intensify with peak gusts over 30 knots possible.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...A cloud deck of around
6000 feet is expected to persist through the rest of today.
Southerly winds with peak gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range will
continue through tonight, increasing out of the southwest tomorrow
morning in the Las Vegas Valley, Colorado River Valley, and KDAG,
and tomorrow afternoon at KBIH. Precipitation begins to reach
over the Sierra Crest towards KBIH this evening. Rain showers
should reach the remaining terminals through tomorrow morning,
bringing cloud bases down to the 3000 - 5000 foot range. Most
precipitation should exit to the east tomorrow afternoon and
evening and cloud cover should decrease. Winds gradually weaken at
all terminals except for KDAG, where westerly winds continue into
tomorrow night.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Phillipson
DISCUSSION...Woods
AVIATION...Meltzer

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